The Impact of Israeli Counterterrorism Interventions on Rate and Intensity of Terrorist Activity: Hazard Modeling and Time Series Approaches

Investigator:

Arie Kruglanski

Project Period:
2009-2011

Primary Findings:
Massive measures (construction of the defensive fence, occupation of Palestinian town by Israeli military) have a strong effect on suppressing terrorist activity, whereas short term measures (short encroachments, targeted assassinations) have, if anything, limited term effect. The impact of Israeli CT differs according to the different terrorist organization in some measure probably because of the competition between the organizations. Conciliatory political measures (summit conferences, meetings, negotiations) have a short term effect on the cessation of terrorism; the negotiations are suspended during the meeting and a period after, but are then resumed (reflecting a failure of the meeting or the summit to produce significant progress).

Methodology:
Forthcoming

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