This chapter presents the latest results of the Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger. The focus of the analysis is the ranking of countries around the world according to their estimated risk of experiencing significant bouts of political instability during the three-year period of 2014-2016. Those risk estimates are obtained using a statistical forecasting model, developed based on historical data. The statistical model confirms strong correlations between the onset of instability and several factors. The most current data available for these factors, from the individual countries, are plugged into the forecasting model, yielding projections of the risk that they face in the future. Once again, the findings illuminate a concentration of serious vulnerabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Awareness of these risks, as well as where they worsened and improved, is an important resource in conflict preparedness and management.
Backer, David A. and Paul K. Huth. 2016. "The Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger: Ranking States on Future Risks." In Peace and Conflict 2016, eds. David Backer, Ravinder Bhavnani, Paul Huth. New York: Routledge, 128-143. https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=lang_en&id=t7FTDAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PA128&dq=%22Ted+Robert+Gurr%22&ots=P3_KmmWn1w&sig=cC1s_h2BRZafzPMveQ0HoSFFi44#v=onepage&q=%22Ted%20Robert%20Gurr%22&f=false