A Department of Homeland Security Emeritus Center of Excellence led by the University of Maryland

Threat Assessment

 

Threat Assessment

Project Title Investigators Project Period
Program to Prepare Communities for Complex Coordinated Terrorist Attacks Erin Miller October, 2017 to August, 2019
A Comparative Study of Violent Extremism and Gangs Gary LaFree, Scott H. Decker, David C. Pyrooz January, 2015 to March, 2019
Dissuading Adversaries and their Radiological/Nuclear Pathways: Integrating Deterrence Theory and Analytics in the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture (GNDA) Amy Pate, Brandon Behlendorf, Gary Ackerman, John Sawyer, Steve Sin, Hamid Mohtadi, Marcus A. Boyd October, 2013 to September, 2018
A Toolkit for Preventing Targeted Violence on College Campuses Gary LaFree July, 2017 to July, 2018
Resources and Resilience: A Computational Model of Strategic Influence January, 2018 to June, 2018
Country Reports on Terrorism - Statistical Annex Gary LaFree, Erin Miller May, 2012 to May, 2018
Profiling the CB Adversary: Motivation, Psychology and Decision Gary Ackerman April, 2016 to December, 2017
Bridging Religious Communities and Technology Providers to Counter Narratives of Violent Extremism Alejandro Beutel, Peter Weinberger October, 2016 to March, 2017
Opportunities for Public-Private Partnership in Countering Online Extremism and Recruitment Brandon Behlendorf July, 2015 to March, 2016
International and Regional Architecture Reports Brandon Behlendorf, Emily Iarocci, Gary Ackerman, Steve Sin May, 2012 to September, 2015
Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) Process John Sawyer, Steve Sin September, 2014 to June, 2015
PRND Capability Development Framework Mapping John Sawyer, Marcus A. Boyd December, 2012 to June, 2015
Insider Threat for Inbound International Air Cargo Gary Ackerman October, 2013 to March, 2015
Integration of International Architecture Analysis Brandon Behlendorf, Emily Iarocci, Gary Ackerman, John Sawyer September, 2013 to March, 2015
Organized and/or Transnational Crime/Drug Cartel Nexus with Illicit Radiological/Nuclear Trade, Smuggling and/or Terrorism in Europe and North, Sahelian and West Africa Amy Pate, John Sawyer, Marcus A. Boyd, Steve Sin September, 2013 to March, 2015
Anatomizing the Behavior of Chemical and Biological Non-State Adversaries Gary Ackerman, Victor Asal June, 2012 to May, 2014
New Analytical Methods for the Exploitation of Open-Source Structured Databases to Enhance Situational Awareness for Effective Counter-WMD Strategies Ronald Breiger, Gary Ackerman, Victor Asal, H. Brinton Milward, R. Karl Rethemeyer March, 2010 to March, 2014
Anatomizing Radiological and Nuclear Non-State Adversaries Gary Ackerman, Jeffrey Bale, R. Karl Rethemeyer June, 2012 to January, 2014
Radiological/Nuclear Adversaries Future Project Gary Ackerman, John Sawyer October, 2012 to December, 2013
Validating Models of Adversary Behavior Jun Zhuang July, 2012 to December, 2013
Border Crossings and Terrorist Attacks in the United States: Lessons for Protecting Against Dangerous Entrants Brent Smith, Erin Miller, Gary LaFree, Kathleen Smarick March, 2010 to August, 2012
Domestic Weapons of Mass Destruction: Populations at Risk from U.S. Chemical Facilities Releases Susan Cutter June, 2008 to October, 2011
European Converts to Islam: An Evolving Threat? Emmanuel Karagiannis June, 2009 to May, 2011
Behavioral Assessments Based on Automated Text Analyses James Pennebaker November, 2008 to May, 2010
Where the Extremes May Touch: The Potential for Collaboration Between Islamist, Right- and Left-Wing Extremists Gary Ackerman, Jeffrey Bale July, 2005 to September, 2009
Population Vulnerability Analysis, Spatial Social Science, and GIS Susan Cutter May, 2005 to May, 2009
Terrorist Groups and Weapons of Mass Destruction Gary Ackerman, Jonathan Wilkenfeld, R. Karl Rethemeyer, Victor Asal July, 2005 to May, 2008
Rehabilitation and Reintegration for CVE Programs William Braniff
Project Title Publication Date START Authors Publication Type
Climate Change and Terrorism: Key Insights May 2022 Henkin, Samuel D. Research Brief
Extreme Hatred: Revisiting the Hate Crime and Terrorism Relationship May 2016 Freilich, Joshua; Chermak, Steven Research Brief
Climate Change and Security May 2022 Henkin, Samuel D. Research Brief
Climate Change and Terrorism: A Call to Action May 2022 Henkin, Samuel D. Research Brief
A Climate of Terror? Climate Change as a Means for Terrorist Exploitation May 2022 Henkin, Samuel D. Research Brief
Interfaith Programs on College Campuses: Lessons Learned March 2011 Wilkenfeld, Jonathan; Smarick, Kathleen Research Brief
A Climate of Terror? Climate Change as a Potential Ideological Driver of Terrorism May 2022 Boyd, Marcus A. Research Brief
Gray Zone Crises in MENA and Eastern Europe March 2017 Ellis, Devin; Murauskaite, Egle; Wilkenfeld, Jonathan; Capps, Ron Research Brief
A Climate of Terror? Climate Change as an Indirect Contributor to Terrorism May 2022 Romm, Madeline Research Brief
Anatomizing Chemical and Biological Non-State Adversaries March 2014 Ackerman, Gary; Binder, Markus Research Brief
Countering the Inhumane: Modeling Probable Pathways for Human Smuggling and Trafficking Along the U.S.-Mexico Border May 2015 Behlendorf, Brandon; Zhuang, Jun; Johns, Mila Research Brief
A Climate of Terror? Approaches to the Study of Climate Change and Terrorism Executive Summary May 2022 Romm, Madeline; Boyd, Marcus A.; Henkin, Samuel D. Research Brief
August 2013 Security Threat to Americans Abroad August 2013 Miller, Erin Background Report
The Rise of Political Islam in Kazakhstan: Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami February 2007 Karagiannis, Emmanuel Journal Article
Benchmark Analysis for Quantifying Urban Vulnerability to Terrorist Incidents December 2007 Cutter, Susan Journal Article
Gauging the Threat August 2013 Ackerman, Gary; Pinson, Lauren Journal Article
Political Islam in Uzbekistan: Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami February 2006 Karagiannis, Emmanuel Journal Article
Characteristics of Lone-Wolf Violent Offenders: a Comparison of Assassins and School Attackers February 2013 McCauley, Clark; Moskalenko, Sophia Journal Article
The DNI's Open Source Center: An Organizational Communication Perspective February 2007 Bean, Hamilton Journal Article
Dynamic Forecasting Conditional Probability of Bombing Attacks Based on Time-Series and Intervention Analysis August 2016 Zhuang, Jun Journal Article
Political Islam in the Former Soviet Union: Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan Compared October 2010 Karagiannis, Emmanuel Journal Article
The Security Dimension of Pakistan's Floods September 2010 Singh, Rashmi Journal Article
Expert Views on Biological Threat Characterization for the U.S. Government: A Delphi Study March 2017 Ackerman, Gary Journal Article
An Army of One: Assessing CBRN Pursuit and Use by Lone Wolves and Autonomous Cells January 2014 Ackerman, Gary; Pinson, Lauren Journal Article
A Three-Stage Evacuation Decision-Making and Behavior Model for the Onset of an Attack June 2017 Zhuang, Jun Journal Article
The Nature of the Beast: Organizational Structures and the Lethality of Terrorist Attacks April 2008 Rethemeyer, R. Karl; Asal, Victor Journal Article
Killing Range: Explaining Lethality Variance within a Terrorist Organization November 2013 Rethemeyer, R. Karl; Asal, Victor Journal Article
The Softest of Targets: A Study on Terrorist Target Selection July 2009 Rethemeyer, R. Karl; Asal, Victor Journal Article
Assessing Terrorist Risks: Developing an Algorithm-Based Model for Law Enforcement January 2012 Journal Article
Coping with Uncertainty in Adversarial Risk Analysis January 2017 Bier, Vicki Journal Article
Terrorist Threats and Police Performance: A Study of Israeli Communities November 2009 Weisburd, David Journal Article
Autologistic Models for Benchmark Risk or Vulnerability Assessment of Urban Terrorism Outcomes October 2017 Cutter, Susan Journal Article
Cross-National Patterns of Terrorism: Comparing Trajectories for Total, Attributed and Fatal Attacks, 1970-2006 July 2010 LaFree, Gary; Dugan, Laura Journal Article
Early Detection of Terrorism Outbreaks Using Prospective Space–Time Scan Statistics October 2012 Cutter, Susan Journal Article
Investigating the Applicability of Situational Crime Prevention to the Public Mass Violence Context December 2019 Freilich, Joshua; Chermak, Steven Journal Article
Dilettantes, Ideologues, and the Weak: Terrorists Who Don't Kill July 2008 Rethemeyer, R. Karl; Asal, Victor Journal Article
Investigating the Applicability of Macro-Level Criminology Theory to Terrorism: A County-Level Analysis November 2014 Adamczyk, Amy; Freilich, Joshua; Chermak, Steven; Parkin, William Journal Article
Attitudes Regarding Becoming an Engaged Bystander for Targeted Violence Prevention May 2020 Weine, Stevan Journal Article
Vulnerability of U.S. Cities to Environmental Hazards June 2007 Cutter, Susan Journal Article
Cultural Evolutionary Mismatches in Response to Collective Threat September 2021 Gelfand, Michele Journal Article
Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami: Evaluating the Threat Posed by a Radical Islamic Group that Remains Nonviolent February 2006 McCauley, Clark; Karagiannis, Emmanuel Journal Article
Assessing the Bioweapons Threat August 2015 Ackerman, Gary Journal Article
Determining Extremist Organizations' Likelihood of Conducting Cyber Attacks June 2016 Washburn, Rhyner; Sin, Steve Conference Paper
Making the Wrong Connection: The Determinants of Terrorist Targeting of Airplanes and Airports February 2010 Rethemeyer, R. Karl; Legault, Richard; Asal, Victor Conference Paper
Scanning the Consequences of Demographic Change for the Emerging Landscape February 2016 Leuprecht, Christian Book Chapter
Have Motivations for Terrorism Changed? November 2005 Crenshaw, Martha Book Chapter
Profiling the WMD Terrorism Threat August 2009 Ackerman, Gary; Bale, Jeffrey Book Chapter
Image Title Job Title Institution
Gary Ackerman Gary Ackerman

Associate Professor, SUNY Albany

University at Albany, State University of New York
Herbert Tinsley

Analyst, Government Accountability Office

John Sawyer John Sawyer

Director of Strategic Corporate Research Relationships

University of Maryland
Madeline Romm Madeline Romm

Researcher/Project Manager, START

University of Maryland
Michelle Jacome Michelle Jacome

Operations Officer on International Finance Cooperation at the World Bank

Nathan Meehan

Director of Research and Development, Second Sight Training Systems, LLC

Second Sight Training Systems, LLC
Rhyner Washburn

Cyber Intelligence Researcher, START

University of Maryland
Salma Bouziani

Project Manager/Researcher, START

University of Maryland
Samuel D. Henkin

Geospatial Research Unit (GRU) Researcher, START

University of Maryland
Steve Sin

Director, Unconventional Weapons and Technology (UWT)

Subject Matter Expert Instructor, National Center for Security & Preparedness

University of Maryland
Tyler A. Clark

Data Scientist, Doctoral Student

University of Maryland
Victor Asal

Associate Professor of Political Science and Chair of Public Administration

University at Albany, State University of New York

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