START Geographic Information Scientists assessed the possible transportation corridors used by foreign fighters when travelling to and from territories controlled by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), specifically focusing on transportation networks in Europe, North Africa, and the Levant. The growing migrant/refugee traffic was explored as a means for foreign fighters to blend in with noncombatant flows. Our findings show that the advanced, multimodal network designed by START GIS can successfully forecast large flows of persons/materials and it shows how potential deterrence/mitigation activities can manipulate those flows.
Boyd, Marcus A., Joshua M. House, Brady L. Woods, Douglas I. Zietz, and Rhys A. Young. April. “Probabilistic Pathway Projection to Counter Foreign Fighters." College Park, MD: START, 2016. https://www.start.umd.edu/pubs/START_NGA_GISForeignFighters_ResearchBrief_April2016_2.pdf