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Book Talk: Intelligence and Surprise Attack: Failure and Success from Pearl Harbor to 9/11 and Beyond


Book Talk: Intelligence and Surprise Attack: Failure and Success from Pearl Harbor to 9/11 and Beyond

Date: 
Wednesday, June 25, 2014
Time: 
12:00pm - 1:00pm
Location: 

Join START from noon to 1 p.m. Wednesday, June 25 as Dr. Erik Dahl discusses his book, “Intelligence and Surprise Attack: Failure and Success from Pearl Harbor to 9/11 and Beyond.The event, held at START Headquarters, is free and open to the public, but an RSVP is requested.

"Intelligence and Surprise Attack" examines why surprise attacks often succeed even though, in most cases, warnings had been available beforehand. Dahl, assistant professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Post Graduate School,  challenges the conventional wisdom about intelligence failure, which holds that attacks succeed because important warnings get lost amid noise or because intelligence officials lack the imagination and collaboration to "connect the dots" of available information. Comparing cases of intelligence failure with intelligence success, Dahl finds that the key to success is not more imagination or better analysis, but better acquisition of precise, tactical-level intelligence combined with the presence of decision makers who are willing to listen to and act on the warnings they receive from their intelligence staff.

ntelligence and Surprise Attack examines why surprise attacks often succeed even though, in most cases, warnings had been available beforehand. Erik J. Dahl challenges the conventional wisdom about intelligence failure, which holds that attacks succeed because important warnings get lost amid noise or because intelligence officials lack the imagination and collaboration to "connect the dots" of available information. Comparing cases of intelligence failure with intelligence success, Dahl finds that the key to success is not more imagination or better analysis, but better acquisition of precise, tactical-level intelligence combined with the presence of decision makers who are willing to listen to and act on the warnings they receive from their intelligence staff. - See more at: http://press.georgetown.edu/book/georgetown/intelligence-and-surprise-attack#sthash.2KMRf823.dpuf

Dahl joined the faculty of the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Post Graduate School as an assistant professor in September 2008. He received his Ph.D. from The Fletcher School of Tufts University, from which he also received a Master of Arts in Law and Diplomacy. Before joining NPS, from 2006 to 2008 Dahl was a pre-doctoral research fellow in the International Security Program at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. At NPS, Dahl also teaches on the faculty of the Center for Homeland Defense and Security

Dahl retired from the U.S. Navy in 2002 after serving 21 years as an intelligence officer. From 1999 to 2002 he served on the faculty of the Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island, where he taught courses on joint military operations, intelligence, and the future of warfare.

His research focuses on intelligence, terrorism, and security studies. His book, Intelligence and Surprise Attack: Failure and Success from Pearl Harbor to 9/11 and Beyond, will be published by Georgetown University Press in October 2013. This book examines the puzzle of why major surprise attacks—whether from terrorist or conventional military enemies—frequently succeed, even though later investigations almost always show that intelligence warnings had been available beforehand but were misunderstood or ignored. To explain the puzzle Dahl proposes a theory of preventive action, which he tests against case studies of intelligence successes and failures. In a separate project, he is conducting a study of unsuccessful terrorist plots against Americans during the past twenty years, in which he argues there are important lessons to be learned from these "plots that failed."

Dahl's work has been published in Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Intelligence and National Security, Homeland Security Affairs, The Journal of Strategic Studies, the U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, Joint Force Quarterly, Defence Studies, and The Naval War College Review.

Prior to arriving in Monterey, he frequently served as an analyst for Boston and New England newspapers and television stations concerning intelligence, terrorism, and national security. In addition to his Ph.D. and MALD from the Fletcher School, he holds master's degrees from the London School of Economics and the Naval War College, and a bachelor's degree from Harvard College.