Unconventional and Asymmetric Threats (UAT) Division

The six capability areas below constitute UAT's core contributions to the irregular warfare and asymmetric threats enterprise.
 

CORE CAPABILITY AREAS

Adversary Behavior Modeling

• Probabilistic decision analysis across CWMD and irregular warfare domains

• SIGMA+: DARPA-sponsored CBRNe adversary detection and plot identification program
  • Stochastic CBRN attack-cycle models and Bayesian threat networks
  • Adversary Weapon Selection Dataset (AWSD)
  • Adversary Automated Template Generation (AATG) tool
• Red-team threat scenario generation and threat actor profiles for exercises and simulations
  • Standalone threat scenarios and actor profiles
  • Full-ecosystem exercise packages with layered intelligence environments

Operations in the Information Environment

• Empirically grounded research into why messages resonate
• Development of field-deployable frameworks for evaluating influence campaign effectiveness across diverse cultural, ideological, and regional contexts
  • Influence Messaging Impact Model (IM2)
  • Influence-to-Action Model (I-AM)
  • Influence-to-Action Chain Theory (I-ACT)
  • Influence Messaging Impact Assessment Tool (IMIAT)
• Original research on pro-Kremlin narrative variation across platforms, events, and geopolitical contexts

Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction

• Behavioral analysis of non-state CBRNactors and events
• The largest open-source CBRN terrorism databases in the world
  • Ideologically Motivated CBRN Event Database
  • Criminally Motivated CBRN Event Database
  • CBRN Actor Database
  • Infrastructure Risk and Energy Database (InfraRED)
• Threat and vulnerability assessments
• ranking and early warning indicators
• Horizon scanning.

Transnational Criminality

• TransIT / CARTEL-M: next-generation geospatial routing capability for forecasting TCO trafficking routes and identifying high-value interdiction nodes
  • TransIT: A multi-modal geodatabase with integrated transportation network modeling and behavioral profiling frameworks
  • CARTEL-M: A substantially updated and expanded successor to TransIT; feasibility study completed, tool development pending
• Comparative analysis of TCO structural resilience and failure trajectories
• Comparative analysis of Latin American TCO structures, principal-agent dynamics, and violence repertoires

Emerging Technologies & Asymmetric Threats

• SMICI: open-source database of cyber-physical and cyber-operational incidents against critical infrastructure worldwide
• Practitioner-focused publications for SLTT and federal law enforcement and first responder communities on nefarious uses of emerging technologies
• In-person and online lectures on emerging technology threats
• GRAT portal: practitioner-searchable synthesis of 20 years of COIN, CT, and IO research, filterable by lever of power, geography, and methodology

InsiderRisk Management & Mitigation

A comprehensive insider risk ecosystem spanning research, professional certification, and customized workforce training.

• UMD Graduate Certificate in Insider Risk Management and Mitigation – 12 credits, fully online, completable in one academic year
• Global Counter-Insider Threat Professional (GCITP) certification: the first globally available C-InT certification, in collaboration with ARLIS and GSX
• Breach from Within: Introduction to Insider Risk Threats: MOOC freely accessible on Coursera