A Department of Homeland Security Emeritus Center of Excellence led by the University of Maryland

A consortium of researchers dedicated to improving the understanding of the human causes and consequences of terrorism

Dynamics of Terrorism and Counterterrorism Campaigns

Dynamics of Terrorism and Counterterrorism Campaigns

December 23, 2015

Using data from START’s Big Allied and Dangerous (BAAD) database, researchers analyzed the relationship between government approaches to counterterrorism and the lethality of insurgent organizations, finding that organizations targeted by police or military forces are much more likely to use lethal terrorism.

The analysis is part of a project led by START Researchers Victor AsalKarl Rethemeyer and Joseph Young, to provide an initial analysis of the factors that make governments more likely to use “carrots” (rewards for refraining from violence), “sticks” (use of police and military force), or “mixed” approaches (that is, both inducements and coercion within the same year) to counter insurgent organizations (some of which use terrorism as a strategy and some of which do not).

Findings from this initial analysis are published in a new research brief, “Insurgency BAAD: Dynamics of Terrorism and Counterterrorism Campaigns.”