A Department of Homeland Security Emeritus Center of Excellence led by the University of Maryland

Threat Assessment


Threat Assessment

Project Titlesort ascending Investigators Project Period
Where the Extremes May Touch: The Potential for Collaboration Between Islamist, Right- and Left-Wing Extremists Gary Ackerman, Jeffrey Bale July, 2005 to September, 2009
Validating Models of Adversary Behavior Jun Zhuang July, 2012 to December, 2013
Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) Process John Sawyer, Steve Sin September, 2014 to June, 2015
Terrorist Groups and Weapons of Mass Destruction Gary Ackerman, Jonathan Wilkenfeld, R. Karl Rethemeyer, Victor Asal July, 2005 to May, 2008
Resources and Resilience: A Computational Model of Strategic Influence January, 2018 to June, 2018
Rehabilitation and Reintegration for CVE Programs William Braniff
Radiological/Nuclear Adversaries Future Project Gary Ackerman, John Sawyer October, 2012 to December, 2013
Program to Prepare Communities for Complex Coordinated Terrorist Attacks Erin Miller October, 2017 to August, 2019
Profiling the CB Adversary: Motivation, Psychology and Decision Gary Ackerman April, 2016 to December, 2017
PRND Capability Development Framework Mapping John Sawyer, Marcus A. Boyd December, 2012 to June, 2015
Population Vulnerability Analysis, Spatial Social Science, and GIS Susan Cutter May, 2005 to May, 2009
Organized and/or Transnational Crime/Drug Cartel Nexus with Illicit Radiological/Nuclear Trade, Smuggling and/or Terrorism in Europe and North, Sahelian and West Africa Amy Pate, John Sawyer, Marcus A. Boyd, Steve Sin September, 2013 to March, 2015
Opportunities for Public-Private Partnership in Countering Online Extremism and Recruitment Brandon Behlendorf July, 2015 to March, 2016
New Analytical Methods for the Exploitation of Open-Source Structured Databases to Enhance Situational Awareness for Effective Counter-WMD Strategies Ronald Breiger, Gary Ackerman, Victor Asal, H. Brinton Milward, R. Karl Rethemeyer March, 2010 to March, 2014
International and Regional Architecture Reports Brandon Behlendorf, Emily Iarocci, Gary Ackerman, Steve Sin May, 2012 to September, 2015
Integration of International Architecture Analysis Brandon Behlendorf, Emily Iarocci, Gary Ackerman, John Sawyer September, 2013 to March, 2015
Insider Threat for Inbound International Air Cargo Gary Ackerman October, 2013 to March, 2015
Global Terrorism Database (GTD) Acceleration Erin Miller January, 2019 to January, 2020
Global Terrorism Database (GTD) Erin Miller, Gary LaFree, Laura Dugan June, 2001 to January, 2020
European Converts to Islam: An Evolving Threat? Emmanuel Karagiannis June, 2009 to May, 2011
Domestic Weapons of Mass Destruction: Populations at Risk from U.S. Chemical Facilities Releases Susan Cutter June, 2008 to October, 2011
Dissuading Adversaries and their Radiological/Nuclear Pathways: Integrating Deterrence Theory and Analytics in the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture (GNDA) Amy Pate, Brandon Behlendorf, Gary Ackerman, John Sawyer, Steve Sin, Hamid Mohtadi, Marcus A. Boyd October, 2013 to September, 2018
Developing Integrated Radiological and Nuclear Detection Architecture for the Interior and International Mission Space Steve Sin, Marcus A. Boyd September, 2016 to September, 2019
Country Reports on Terrorism - Statistical Annex Gary LaFree, Erin Miller May, 2012 to May, 2018
Bridging Religious Communities and Technology Providers to Counter Narratives of Violent Extremism Alejandro Beutel, Peter Weinberger October, 2016 to March, 2017
Border Crossings and Terrorist Attacks in the United States: Lessons for Protecting Against Dangerous Entrants Brent Smith, Erin Miller, Gary LaFree, Kathleen Smarick March, 2010 to August, 2012
Behavioral Assessments Based on Automated Text Analyses James Pennebaker November, 2008 to May, 2010
Anatomizing the Behavior of Chemical and Biological Non-State Adversaries Gary Ackerman, Victor Asal June, 2012 to May, 2014
Anatomizing Radiological and Nuclear Non-State Adversaries Gary Ackerman, Jeffrey Bale, R. Karl Rethemeyer June, 2012 to January, 2014
A Toolkit for Preventing Targeted Violence on College Campuses Gary LaFree July, 2017 to July, 2018
A Comparative Study of Violent Extremism and Gangs Gary LaFree, Scott H. Decker, David C. Pyrooz January, 2015 to March, 2019
A Climate of Terror: Approaches to the Study of Climate Change and Terrorism Marcus A. Boyd, Samuel D. Henkin January, 2022 to May, 2022
Project Titlesort ascending Publication Date START Authors Publication Type
Vulnerability of U.S. Cities to Environmental Hazards June 2007 Cutter, Susan Journal Article
Understanding Tornado Warnings, False Alarms, and Complacency September 2016 Liu, Brooke; Roberts, Holly; Egnoto, Michael Fact Sheet
Understanding Law Enforcement Intelligence Processes July 2014 Carter, David L.; Carter, Jeremy G.; Chermak, Steven START Reports
The thin red line March 2013 Johns, Mila Op-ed
The Softest of Targets: A Study on Terrorist Target Selection July 2009 Rethemeyer, R. Karl; Asal, Victor Journal Article
The Security Dimension of Pakistan's Floods September 2010 Singh, Rashmi Journal Article
The Rise of Political Islam in Kazakhstan: Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami February 2007 Karagiannis, Emmanuel Journal Article
The Nature of the Beast: Organizational Structures and the Lethality of Terrorist Attacks April 2008 Rethemeyer, R. Karl; Asal, Victor Journal Article
The DNI's Open Source Center: An Organizational Communication Perspective February 2007 Bean, Hamilton Journal Article
Terrorist Threats and Police Performance: A Study of Israeli Communities November 2009 Weisburd, David Journal Article
Scanning the Consequences of Demographic Change for the Emerging Landscape February 2016 Leuprecht, Christian Book Chapter
Profiling the WMD Terrorism Threat August 2009 Ackerman, Gary; Bale, Jeffrey Book Chapter
Political Islam in Uzbekistan: Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami February 2006 Karagiannis, Emmanuel Journal Article
Political Islam in the Former Soviet Union: Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan Compared October 2010 Karagiannis, Emmanuel Journal Article
Making the Wrong Connection: The Determinants of Terrorist Targeting of Airplanes and Airports February 2010 Rethemeyer, R. Karl; Legault, Richard; Asal, Victor Conference Paper
Killing Range: Explaining Lethality Variance within a Terrorist Organization November 2013 Rethemeyer, R. Karl; Asal, Victor Journal Article
Investigating the Applicability of Situational Crime Prevention to the Public Mass Violence Context December 2019 Freilich, Joshua; Chermak, Steven Journal Article
Investigating the Applicability of Macro-Level Criminology Theory to Terrorism: A County-Level Analysis November 2014 Adamczyk, Amy; Freilich, Joshua; Chermak, Steven; Parkin, William Journal Article
Interfaith Programs on College Campuses: Lessons Learned March 2011 Wilkenfeld, Jonathan; Smarick, Kathleen Research Brief
Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami: Evaluating the Threat Posed by a Radical Islamic Group that Remains Nonviolent February 2006 McCauley, Clark; Karagiannis, Emmanuel Journal Article
Have Motivations for Terrorism Changed? November 2005 Crenshaw, Martha Book Chapter
Gray Zone Crises in MENA and Eastern Europe March 2017 Ellis, Devin; Murauskaite, Egle; Wilkenfeld, Jonathan; Capps, Ron Research Brief
Gauging the Threat August 2013 Ackerman, Gary; Pinson, Lauren Journal Article
Extreme Hatred: Revisiting the Hate Crime and Terrorism Relationship May 2016 Freilich, Joshua; Chermak, Steven Research Brief
Expert Views on Biological Threat Characterization for the U.S. Government: A Delphi Study March 2017 Ackerman, Gary Journal Article
Early Detection of Terrorism Outbreaks Using Prospective Space–Time Scan Statistics October 2012 Cutter, Susan Journal Article
Dynamic Forecasting Conditional Probability of Bombing Attacks Based on Time-Series and Intervention Analysis August 2016 Zhuang, Jun Journal Article
Discussion Point: Is Aaron Alexis part of a larger phenomenon of lone-actor grievance-based violence? September 2013 McCauley, Clark Discussion Point
Dilettantes, Ideologues, and the Weak: Terrorists Who Don't Kill July 2008 Rethemeyer, R. Karl; Asal, Victor Journal Article
Determining Extremist Organizations' Likelihood of Conducting Cyber Attacks June 2016 Washburn, Rhyner; Sin, Steve Conference Paper
CVE Field Principles for Local Government Agencies December 2016 Beutel, Alejandro Discussion Point
Cultural Evolutionary Mismatches in Response to Collective Threat September 2021 Gelfand, Michele Journal Article
Cross-National Patterns of Terrorism: Comparing Trajectories for Total, Attributed and Fatal Attacks, 1970-2006 July 2010 LaFree, Gary; Dugan, Laura Journal Article
Countering the Inhumane: Modeling Probable Pathways for Human Smuggling and Trafficking Along the U.S.-Mexico Border May 2015 Behlendorf, Brandon; Zhuang, Jun; Johns, Mila Research Brief
Coping with Uncertainty in Adversarial Risk Analysis January 2017 Bier, Vicki Journal Article
Characteristics of Lone-Wolf Violent Offenders: a Comparison of Assassins and School Attackers February 2013 McCauley, Clark; Moskalenko, Sophia Journal Article
Benchmark Analysis for Quantifying Urban Vulnerability to Terrorist Incidents December 2007 Cutter, Susan Journal Article
Autologistic Models for Benchmark Risk or Vulnerability Assessment of Urban Terrorism Outcomes October 2017 Cutter, Susan Journal Article
August 2013 Security Threat to Americans Abroad August 2013 Miller, Erin Background Report
Attitudes Regarding Becoming an Engaged Bystander for Targeted Violence Prevention May 2020 Weine, Stevan Journal Article
Assessing the Bioweapons Threat August 2015 Ackerman, Gary Journal Article
Assessing Terrorist Risks: Developing an Algorithm-Based Model for Law Enforcement January 2012 Journal Article
Anatomizing Chemical and Biological Non-State Adversaries March 2014 Ackerman, Gary; Binder, Markus Research Brief
An Army of One: Assessing CBRN Pursuit and Use by Lone Wolves and Autonomous Cells January 2014 Ackerman, Gary; Pinson, Lauren Journal Article
A Three-Stage Evacuation Decision-Making and Behavior Model for the Onset of an Attack June 2017 Zhuang, Jun Journal Article
Title Byline
Upcoming talk identifies pandemic's strategic implications for risk assessment and resilience Jessica Rivinius
Terrorism studies minor now accepting applications Kelly Kline
START seeking 2014 Outstanding Article Award nominations Jessica Rivinius
START researchers inform interns on “Machine Learning and Big Data for Predictive Modeling of Asymmetric Threats” (Photo Gallery) Alexa Cottman-Robinson
START Research Contributes to House Intelligence Report
START Director Quoted on Port Security
START Announces Fellowships for 2005-06
Sovereign citizen movement perceived as top terrorist threat Jessica Rivinius
Islamic State Chemical Weapons: A Case Contained by its Context? Shruti Bhatt
Innovative START project wins UMD-TEC seed funding Zane Moses
Hybrid organizations have greater motivational and operations ability for RN trafficking Liz Wasden
Government Executive Magazine Spotlights the Work of START
Discussion Point: The Prospective Military Power of Al Qaeda Affiliated Groups in the Syrian Conflict Aaron Lin, Daniel Smith, Ryan Pereira
Discussion Point: Is Aaron Alexis part of a larger phenomenon of lone-actor grievance-based violence? Clark McCauley
Database Spotlight: Radiological and Nuclear Non-State Adversaries (RANNSAD) Emily Bonta
Climate change: Fueling terror and extremism
Are U.S. chemical facilities still open to terrorist attacks? Gary Ackerman, Markus Binder, Robert Denaburg
Applications Now Being Accepted from UMaryland Undergraduates for Terrorism Studies Minor Program
Image Title Job Title Institution
Victor Asal

Associate Professor of Political Science and Chair of Public Administration

 University at Albany, State University of New York
Tyler A. Clark

Junior Researcher, UWT

 University of Maryland
Steve Sin

Director, Unconventional Weapons and Technology (UWT)

Subject Matter Expert Instructor, National Center for Security & Preparedness

 University of Maryland
Samuel D. Henkin

Geospatial Research Unit (GRU) Researcher, START

 University of Maryland
Salma Bouziani

Project Manager/Researcher, START

 University of Maryland
Rhyner Washburn

Cyber Intelligence Researcher, START

 University of Maryland
Nathan Meehan

Director of Research and Development, Second Sight Training Systems, LLC

 Second Sight Training Systems, LLC
Michelle Jacome Michelle Jacome

Operations Officer on International Finance Cooperation at the World Bank
Madeline Romm Madeline Romm

Researcher/Project Manager, START

 University of Maryland
John Sawyer John Sawyer

Director of Strategic Corporate Research Relationships

 University of Maryland
Herbert Tinsley

Analyst, Government Accountability Office
Gary Ackerman Gary Ackerman

Associate Professor, SUNY Albany

 University at Albany, State University of New York
Egle Murauskaite

Senior Researcher & Simulation Developer, ICONS Project, START

 University of Maryland
Clark McCauley Clark McCauley

Professor of Psychology

 Bryn Mawr College
Barnett Koven Barnett S. Koven

Data Science Manager, Deloitte Government & Public Services

 
Amy Pate Amy Pate

START Executive Director and Research Director

 University of Maryland
Adam Martin

Software Developer, Vexterra Group
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